A. Core Data for the US-REGEN Model
This appendix presents some key data sources and summary data used in the US-REGEN baseline scenario. The actual data used in scenarios for technical reports may vary, and any differences will be documented as they occur in those reports. All cost data are presented in constant 2010 dollars.
Key Datasets
The two models comprising US-REGEN use multiple primary sources to calibrate to observed data:
Economic data sourced from the IMPLAN database; see https://implan.com/data/open in new window
Energy data from the Energy Information Adminstration's State Energy Data System (SEDS); see https://www.eia.gov/state/seds/open in new window
End-use energy survey data from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS); see https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/open in new window, and Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS); see https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/open in new window
Gridded weather data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); see https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/reanalysis/MERRA-2/open in new window
Household travel survey data from the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration; see https://nhts.ornl.gov/open in new window
U.S. generation fleet and emissions data from ABB Energy Velocity (formerly Ventyx); see https://new.abb.com/enterprise-software/energy-portfolio-management/market-intelligence-services/velocity-suiteopen in new window
The National Emissions Inventory (NEI); see https://www.epa.gov/air-emissions-inventories/national-emissions-inventory-neiopen in new window
Technology cost and performance data from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Generation Options Report; see https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/3002011806/open in new window
Sectoral growth projections from the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO); see https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/open in new window
The data are updated periodically. U.S. generation fleet data, technology cost and performance data, AEO data, and data from SEDS are updated annually. Data from other primary datasets are updated when a new base year is chosen—most of these datasets themselves are only updated every 3-5 years.
Capital and Operating Costs of New Generation
This first table (Table A-1) presents capital costs and heat rates for new generation by installation year and type. This data is sourced from EPRI reports that are publicly available, particularly the Generation Options Report that is published through EPRI's Technology Innovation program. Costs listed here are the generation-weighted average of state-specific costs, which vary due to labor and construction factors.
| Technology | Installation Year | Capital Cost ($/kW)* | Heat Rate (mmBTU / MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supercritical Pulverized Coal (with full environmental controls and without CCS) | 2020 2030 2050+ | 2650 2650 2650 | 8.749 7.935 7.582 |
| Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Coal (with full environmental controls and without CCS) | 2020 2030 2050+ | 3400 3130 2950 | 8.124 7.582 6.963 |
| IGCC Coal (with CCS) | 2020 2030 2050+ | 4500 4140 3900 | 10.006 8.726 7.667 |
| IGCC Coal (with partial CCS) | 2020 2030 2050+ | 4210 3880 3650 | 9.749 8.492 7.520 |
| Natural Gas Combined Cycle (without CCS) | 2020 2030 2050+ | 1180 1180 1180 | 6.438 6.319 6.319 |
| Natural Gas Combined Cycle (with CCS) | 2020 2030 2050+ | 2320 2200 2090 | 7.403 7.014 6.887 |
| Natural Gas Turbine (without CCS) | 2020 2030 2050+ | 830 830 830 | 10.662 10.185 9.749 |
| Wind Power Onshore | 2020 2035 2050+ | 1290 1090 1090 | N/A |
| Wind Power Offshore | 2020 2035 2050+ | 3790 3210 3210 | N/A |
| Solar Photovoltaic - Fixed Tilt | 2020 2035 2050+ | 1270 860 620 | N/A |
| Solar Photovoltaic - Single Axis | 2020 2035 2050+ | 1370 920 670 | N/A |
| Solar Photovoltaic - Dual Axis | 2020 2035 2050+ | 1470 980 720 | N/A |
| Dedicated Biomass (based on a 50 MW direct fire plant) | 2020 2030 2050+ | 4650 4410 4250 | 11.766 11.373 10.662 |
| Dedicated Biomass (with CCS) | 2020 2030 2050+ | 5580 5410 5100 | 15.295 14.785 13.861 |
| Nuclear (Greenfield) | 2020 2030 2050+ | 5640 5480 5160 | 10 10 10 |
| Hydroelectric | 2020 2030 2050+ | 2000 2000 2000 | N/A |
| Geothermal | 2020 2030 2050+ | 5470 5310 5000 | N/A |
* All costs are in constant 2010 dollars.
The second table (Table A-2) lists fixed and variable operating and maintenance costs, and plant lifetimes of new generation. Costs listed here are the generation-weighted average of state-specific costs, which vary due to labor and construction factors.
| Technology | Fixed O&M Costs ($/kW-year)* | Variable O&M Costs ($/MWh)* | Plant Lifetime |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supercritical Pulverized Coal (with full environmental controls and without CCS) | 60 | 2.5 | 70 |
| Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Coal (with full environmental controls and without CCS) | 110 | 2 | 60 |
| IGCC Coal (with CCS) | 140 | 4.2 | 60 |
| IGCC Coal (with partial CCS) | 132 | 5.3 | 60 |
| Natural Gas Combined Cycle (without CCS) | 15 | 2.4 | 60 |
| Natural Gas Combined Cycle (with CCS) | 27 | 5.3 | 60 |
| Natural Gas Turbine (without CCS) | 15 | 4.5 | 60 |
| Dedicated Biomass (based on a 50 MW direct fire plant) | 65 | 5 | 60 |
| Dedicated Biomass (with CCS) | 162 | 16.6 | 60 |
| Nuclear | 110 | 1.7 | 80 |
| Hydroelectric | 66 | 0 | 100 |
| Geothermal | 68 | 9.6 | 30 |
| Wind Power Onshore | 40 | 0 | 25 |
| Wind Power Offshore | 116 | 0 | 25 |
| Solar Photovoltaic – Fixed Tilt | 15 | 0 | 30 |
| Solar Photovoltaic – Single Axis | 16 | 0 | 30 |
| Solar Photovoltaic – Double Axis | 17 | 0 | 30 |
*All costs are in constant 2010 dollars.
Operating costs are held constant over time and are assumed not to increase as a plant ages.
Retrofitting Costs
US-REGEN allows for coal plants to be retrofitted to satisfy environmental or carbon constraints. Details of the retrofit technologies can be found in Section 2.3.1. Table A-3 outlines the assumed costs of retrofitting an existing coal plant, and the assumptions on the resulting changes in the plant's performance.
| Capital Cost ($/kW) | Capacity Penalty | Heat rate | Non-CO2 emissions rates (SOx/NOx) | Variable O&M | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enable 5% Biomass Co-Fire | $10 (i.e. $200/kW of biomass capacity) | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.0/0.8 | 1.0 |
| Convert to Gas | $150 | 1.0 | 0.96 | 0.0/0.05 | 0.5 |
| Convert to 100% Biomass | $1,000 | 1.44 | 1.2 | 0.0/0.05 | 0.9 |
| Convert to CCS (90% capture) | $1,500* | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.15/0.05 | 2.0 |
| Heatrate Improvement | User-defined as required for specific analyses |
*All costs are in constant 2010 dollars. CCS conversion costs are set at $1500/kW in 2015 but decline over time to $1260/kW in 2050.
Carbon Dioxide Injection Capacity and Storage Costs
US-REGEN models injection capacity by state as a component of carbon capture and storage technologies. Table A-4 lists the available capacity by state. States are capable of sending CO2 by pipeline to neighboring regions. Table A-5 lists the levelized storage costs for CO2 by state.
| State | Storage capacity (metric gigatonnes CO2) |
|---|---|
| AK | 0.00 |
| AL | 116.95 |
| AR | 4.32 |
| AZ | 0.09 |
| CA | 30.31 |
| CO | 32.16 |
| CT | 0.00 |
| DC | 0.00 |
| DE | 0.03 |
| FL | 97.89 |
| GA | 144.74 |
| HI | 0.00 |
| IA | 0.00 |
| ID | 0.03 |
| IL | 19.12 |
| IN | 35.61 |
| KS | 7.12 |
| KY | 14.28 |
| LA | 151.55 |
| MA | 0.00 |
| MD | 1.64 |
| ME | 0.00 |
| MI | 26.11 |
| MN | 0.00 |
| MO | 0.01 |
| MS | 122.61 |
| MT | 109.41 |
| NC | 1.35 |
| ND | 66.07 |
| NE | 23.36 |
| NH | 0.00 |
| NJ | 0.00 |
| NM | 30.49 |
| NV | 0.00 |
| NY | 3.86 |
| OH | 8.76 |
| OK | 13.10 |
| OR | 4.23 |
| PA | 16.15 |
| RI | 0.00 |
| SC | 30.52 |
| SD | 3.39 |
| TN | 0.44 |
| TX | 303.92 |
| UT | 21.36 |
| VA | 0.24 |
| VT | 0.00 |
| WA | 36.08 |
| WI | 0.00 |
| WV | 10.35 |
| WY | 141.54 |
| State | Levelized cost ($ per metric ton CO2) |
|---|---|
| AK | - |
| AL | 1.22 |
| AR | 1.26 |
| AZ | 1.99 |
| CA | 1.10 |
| CO | 1.85 |
| CT | - |
| DC | - |
| DE | 1.56 |
| FL | 1.20 |
| GA | 1.04 |
| HI | - |
| IA | - |
| ID | 1.28 |
| IL | 1.21 |
| IN | 1.42 |
| KS | 1.40 |
| KY | 1.37 |
| LA | 1.27 |
| MA | - |
| MD | 1.54 |
| ME | - |
| MI | 1.57 |
| MN | - |
| MO | 1.84 |
| MS | 1.44 |
| MT | 1.88 |
| NC | 1.50 |
| ND | 2.23 |
| NE | 1.60 |
| NH | - |
| NJ | - |
| NM | 1.45 |
| NV | - |
| NY | 2.70 |
| OH | 2.97 |
| OK | 2.17 |
| OR | 1.91 |
| PA | 2.58 |
| RI | - |
| SC | 1.05 |
| SD | 1.99 |
| TN | 4.82 |
| TX | 1.32 |
| UT | 1.46 |
| VA | 1.58 |
| VT | - |
| WA | 2.75 |
| WI | - |
| WV | 2.35 |
| WY | 1.48 |
Existing Nuclear Unit Assumptions
Lifetime assumptions for existing nuclear units are listed in Table A-6.
| Unit Name | Summer Capacity (MW) | Online Year | Assumed Lifetime | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas Nuclear One 1 | 826 | 1974 | 60 | |
| Arkansas Nuclear One 2 | 986 | 1980 | 80 | |
| Beaver Valley 1 | 920 | 1976 | 45 | Closing 2021 per FirstEnergy |
| Beaver Valley 2 | 914 | 1987 | 34 | Closing 2021 per FirstEnergy |
| Braidwood 1 | 1,178 | 1988 | 80 | |
| Braidwood 2 | 1,152 | 1988 | 80 | |
| Browns Ferry 1 | 1,101 | 1974 | 80 | |
| Browns Ferry 2 | 1,104 | 1975 | 80 | |
| Browns Ferry 3 | 1,105 | 1977 | 80 | |
| Brunswick 1 | 938 | 1977 | 80 | |
| Brunswick 2 | 932 | 1975 | 80 | |
| Byron 1 | 1,164 | 1985 | 80 | |
| Byron 2 | 1,136 | 1987 | 80 | |
| Callaway | 1,193 | 1984 | 80 | |
| Calvert Cliffs 1 | 866 | 1975 | 60 | |
| Calvert Cliffs 2 | 842 | 1977 | 60 | |
| Catawba 1 | 1,140 | 1985 | 80 | |
| Catawba 2 | 1,150 | 1986 | 80 | |
| Clinton | 1,065 | 1987 | 60 | |
| Columbia Generating Sta. | 1,137 | 1984 | 80 | |
| Comanche Peak 1 | 1,205 | 1990 | 80 | |
| Comanche Peak 2 | 1,195 | 1993 | 80 | |
| Cooper | 766 | 1974 | 80 | |
| Davis-Besse | 894 | 1977 | 80 | |
| Diablo Canyon 1 | 1,150 | 1985 | 40 | No life extension per PG&E |
| Diablo Canyon 2 | 1,150 | 1986 | 40 | No life extension per PG&E |
| Donald C. Cook 1 | 1,009 | 1975 | 60 | |
| Donald C. Cook 2 | 1,060 | 1978 | 60 | |
| Dresden 2 | 884 | 1970 | 80 | |
| Dresden 3 | 895 | 1971 | 80 | |
| Duane Arnold | 619 | 1975 | 46 | Closing 2020 per Alliant |
| Edwin I. Hatch 1 | 876 | 1975 | 60 | |
| Edwin I. Hatch 2 | 883 | 1979 | 60 | |
| Fermi 2 | 1,124 | 1988 | 80 | |
| Fort Calhoun | 478 | 1973 | 43 | Closed 2016 |
| Ginna | 582 | 1970 | 60 | |
| Grand Gulf 1 | 1,409 | 1985 | 80 | |
| H.B. Robinson 2 | 741 | 1971 | 60 | |
| Hope Creek 1 | 1,172 | 1986 | 80 | |
| Indian Point 2 | 1,020 | 1973 | 47 | Closing 2021 per NY Governor |
| Indian Point 3 | 1,041 | 1976 | 45 | Closing 2021 per NY Governor |
| James Fitzpatrick | 852 | 1975 | 60 | |
| Joseph M. Farley 1 | 874 | 1977 | 80 | |
| Joseph M. Farley 2 | 883 | 1981 | 60 | |
| LaSalle County 1 | 1,135 | 1984 | 80 | |
| LaSalle County 2 | 1,136 | 1986 | 80 | |
| Limerick 1 | 1,120 | 1990 | 80 | |
| Limerick 2 | 1,122 | 1981 | 80 | |
| McGuire 1 | 1,158 | 1984 | 80 | |
| McGuire 2 | 1,158 | 1975 | 80 | |
| Millstone 2 | 871 | 1986 | 80 | |
| Millstone 3 | 1,225 | 1971 | 80 | |
| Monticello | 554 | 1990 | 60 | |
| Nine Mile Point 1 | 626 | 1969 | 60 | |
| Nine Mile Point 2 | 1,144 | 1988 | 80 | |
| North Anna 1 | 948 | 1978 | 80 | |
| North Anna 2 | 944 | 1980 | 80 | |
| Oconee 1 | 847 | 1973 | 80 | |
| Oconee 2 | 848 | 1974 | 80 | |
| Oconee 3 | 859 | 1974 | 80 | |
| Oyster Creek 1 | 608 | 1969 | 50 | Closed 2019 |
| Palisades | 789 | 1972 | 50 | Retiring 2022 per Entergy |
| Palo Verde 1 | 1,311 | 1986 | 80 | |
| Palo Verde 2 | 1,314 | 1986 | 80 | |
| Palo Verde 3 | 1,312 | 1988 | 80 | |
| Peach Bottom 2 | 1,125 | 1974 | 80 | |
| Peach Bottom 3 | 1,125 | 1974 | 80 | |
| Perry 1 | 1,240 | 1987 | 80 | |
| Pilgrim 1 | 678 | 1972 | 47 | Closed 2019 |
| Point Beach 1 | 596 | 1971 | 80 | |
| Point Beach 2 | 597 | 1972 | 80 | |
| Prairie Island 1 | 521 | 1974 | 80 | |
| Prairie Island 2 | 519 | 1974 | 80 | |
| Quad Cities 1 | 908 | 1972 | 60 | |
| Quad Cities 2 | 911 | 1972 | 60 | |
| River Bend 1 | 969 | 1986 | 80 | |
| Salem 1 | 1,170 | 1977 | 80 | |
| Salem 2 | 1,158 | 1981 | 80 | |
| Seabrook 1 | 1,246 | 1990 | 80 | |
| Sequoyah 1 | 1,152 | 1981 | 80 | |
| Sequoyah 2 | 1,126 | 1982 | 80 | |
| Shearon Harris 1 | 928 | 1987 | 80 | |
| South Texas Project 1 | 1,286 | 1988 | 80 | |
| South Texas Project 2 | 1,295 | 1989 | 80 | |
| St Lucie 1 | 981 | 1976 | 80 | |
| St Lucie 2 | 987 | 1983 | 80 | |
| Surry 1 | 838 | 1972 | 60 | |
| Surry 2 | 838 | 1973 | 80 | |
| Susquehanna 1 | 1,260 | 1983 | 80 | |
| Susquehanna 2 | 1,260 | 1985 | 80 | |
| Three Mile Island 1 | 803 | 1974 | 45 | Closed 2019 |
| Turkey Point 3 | 802 | 1972 | 80 | |
| Turkey Point 4 | 802 | 1973 | 80 | |
| V C Summer | 971 | 1984 | 80 | |
| Vogtle 1 | 1,150 | 1987 | 80 | |
| Vogtle 2 | 1,152 | 1989 | 80 | |
| Waterford 3 | 1,164 | 1985 | 80 | |
| Watts Bar 1 | 1,123 | 1996 | 80 | |
| Wolf Creek 1 | 1,175 | 1985 | 80 |