3.4 Industry and Heavy Transportation
The industrial and heavy transportation sectors modeled in a more stylized way than the buildings and passenger vehicles sectors. The allocation of base year energy consumption across sectors and end-uses on a regional basis is the result of a calibration exercise bringing together information SEDS, the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) conducted by the EIA, the Advanced Manufacturing Office from DOE, and published NEMS results in AEO. The sectoral definitions mostly follow the categorization used by AEO and NEMS, as summarized in Table 3‑7 and Table 3‑8.
| Industrial Sector | Detailed Description |
|---|---|
| Bulk chemicals | NAICS codes 3251xx, 3252xx, 3253xx (petrochemicals, fertilizers, etc., excluding pharma) |
| Iron and steel (primary and secondary) | NAICS codes 3311xx, 3312xx |
| Paper pulp and wood | NAICS codes 321xxx, 322xxx |
| Food | NAICS codes 311xxx |
| Cement | NAICS codes 32731, 3274 (includes lime and gypsum) |
| Aluminum | NAICS codes 3313xx |
| Specialized Manufacturing | Metal Based Durables (fabricated metal products, machinery, computers, transportation equipment, electrical equipment) NAICS codes 332xxx, 333xxx, 334xxx, 335xxx, 336xxx |
| Other manufacturing | Glass plus Plastics plus Balance of Manufacturing (sub-categories of "other manufacturing" in AEO tables) All other 3xxxxx NAICS codes excluding 3241xx (petroleum refining and products) |
| Agriculture | NAICS codes 1xxxxx |
| Construction | NAICS codes 23xxxx |
| Mining (non-energy products) | NAICS codes 21xxxx and 22xxxx excluding those associated with coal, oil, and gas primary production |
| Transportation sector | Detailed Description |
|---|---|
| Aviation (domestic and international) | Air total divided into domestic and international based on departures |
| Other passenger | Aggregation of transit buses, school buses, intercity buses, transit rail, intercity rail, and commuter rail |
| Light commercial trucks | Light commercial trucks (8501 to 10,000 lbs) |
| Freight trucks | Freight trucks (> 10,000 lbs) |
| Freight rail | Freight rail (less estimated use for coal transport - about 1/3 of total) |
| Maritime (domestic) | Domestic Shipping and Recreational Boats |
| Maritime (international) | International Shipping / Bunker fuels |
| Military | Military |
Once the base year has been established, service demands for each end-use are projected based on national trends in the AEO for each industrial sector and each category of transportation activity. Service demands by end-use within industrial sectors are projected to grow proportionally to sectoral output. That is, the model assumes that the relative shares of process heating and cooling versus machine drive and non-process services such as facility lighting and HVAC do not change over time, nor does the relative share of energy services in industrial output. While within-industry structural change may result from technical change, these trends are difficult to predict. However, the model does assume the energy per service unit declines over time, at different rates depending on the end-use (see Table 3‑9). Corresponding assumptions for heavy transportation sectors are based on AEO projections. These rates are exogenously specified, but the model also includes the option to accelerate the rate of efficiency improvement (at an additional cost) in response to rising energy prices.
| Annual rate | |
|---|---|
| Industrial Boilers | 0.5% |
| Process heating / cooling | 0.8% |
| Machine drive | 1.0% |
| Non-process industrial use | 0.8% |
| Industrial off-road vehicles and equipment | 0.5% |
The model formulation then evaluates trade-offs between supplying service demand across a stylized set of candidate technologies corresponding to alternative fuels. The parameterization of these trade-offs is simpler than that described above for buildings and passenger vehicles, but involves the same conceptual components: a relative coefficient of performance determining energy consumption and cost, and a non-energy cost component reflecting capital costs as well as productivity improvements or other service improvements. Table 3‑10 summarizes assumptions for relative coefficient of performance, that is, relative fuel use per service unit, for industrial end-uses. For heavy transport, electricity is assumed to be three times as efficient as liquid fuels. In this version of the model, non-energy costs are based on top-down assumptions rather than bottom-up assessments of the underlying technologies for the industrial and heavy transportation sectors. In general, electric end-use technologies are assumed to have similar or in some cases lower capital and operating costs. A priority for future model development is to refine the formulation to include more explicit connections to specific technology characteristics.
| Coal | Coal (+CCS) | Liquids | Gas | Gas (+CCS) | Elec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boilers | 1 | 0.7 | 1 | 1.1 | 0.77 | 1.5 |
| Process heat/cool | 1 | 0.7 | 1 | 1.1 | 2 | |
| Machine drive | 1 | 1.1 | 3 | |||
| Non-process | 1 | 1.1 | 3 |